Thursday, 9 February 2017

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While Nokia and Microsoft have been repeating the 20% numbers from those big analyst houses, as recently as October of 2011, the reality is, that those numbers are not news in October. They were repeating an old story. Not from September. Not from August or July or e. Not from May, but from April and March.


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And here is the relevant point - the two major analyst house projections for Microsoft Windows Phone harga black berry pearl
Nokia partnership, were published before Nokia and Microsoft Q1 financial performance numbers were released.



They are based on data form Q4 of 2010. The forecast was based on numbers, prior to the Elop Effect. So yes, if you take Nokia in 2010, when Nokia had 29% market share harga black berry pearl
Symbian; and you add Microsoft Windows Phone and Windows Mobile, who had a combined market share of 3%, and add those together, you get 32%. From that it is a very safe projection - actually quite negative of this alliance, if separately they are worth 32% but combined they only do 20% or 22% or something like that. Now we know that Stephen Elop destroyed his company in February.


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We know there emerged a sales boycott. We know the market share crashed, sales revenues crashed and Nokia profits vanished.



Did those analyst houses bother to give an updated forecast? No. They have remained silent (in shock).



They are hoping and praying that nobody ever ever mentions their absurd forecasts again.


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So, earlier this week, we had the very first major industry analyst house issue a fresh, post Elop Effect, forecast for Nokia and Microsoft Windows Phone. That was Morgan Stanley. They say that Windows Phone would reach abharga black berry pearl 37 million unit sales this year and 64 million in 2013. These number have been reported in hundreds of stories and the vast majority of those stories cheerfully reported that this was good news. I could tell you that a gambler left Las Vegas harga black berry pearl
100,000 dollars in his pocket.



Is that good news? It depends how much he had in his pocket when he arrived in Vegas.



In this Nokia case, the gambler arrived harga black berry pearl
a million dollars and only has 100,000 to show for it. Utter total failure.


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That is what the 37 million and 64 million numbers reflect.



Not success by any definition.



Why? Lets add in the Symbian sales and see. Morgan Stanley forecasts that in 2012 Nokia will sell 40 million Symbian based smarphones so the total for 2012 for Nokia is 77 million.



In 2013 the projection has 16 million Symbian sales for a total of 80 million Nokia smartphones. So far so good. Now the cold shower.



In 2010 Nokias annual unit sales was 100 million smartphones which gave Nokia a market share in smartphones of: 33%. For 2011 it will be around 18% (maybe less). But after Nokia jumps into bed harga black berry pearl
Microsoft in 2012 the market share is not 20%, it will be. 11%. In 2013 Nokia and Microsoft will not magically recover to 20%. Morgan Stanleys projection when converged to markets share is. 8%. Do you believe that abandoning 33% market share - when your unit sales grew 47% and your revenues grew and your profits grew so explosively, for the last quarter Nokia set a record in profit growth of its handset unit - and replacing that harga black berry pearl
8% market share only 3 years later, harga black berry pearl
no growth but abharga black berry pearl flat sales, dramatically fallen revenues and at best miniscule profits (probably continued losses). Nokia has taken its customer base and walked it in front of a firing squad, and shot it dead. Destroying 75% of its customer base in three year! This is corporate suicide.



This is a hara-kiri by the CEO. Please do not say Tomi hates Nokia. Those are not my numbers, they are Morgan Stanleys numbers and they are the FIRST analyst house to dare to make a projection on the Nokia-Microsoft partnership.



For what its worth, my gut says they are way too optimistic, the evidence suggests it will be worse that this. If Stephen Elop can deliver 6. 4 million Lumia sales in the past Q4, I am willing to say in public, I was wrong, he is competent to manage Nokia and I will accept hes made some mistakes that should be forgiven as learning on the job. If Stephen Elop can deliver at least the 4 million Lumia sales that Nokia N8 and Symbian S^3 did last year - harga black berry pearl
harga black berry pearl adding the industry growth, I would conclude that Elop is spectacularly incompetent or irresponsible or foolish or rash, but perhaps the Board can be forgiven to allow some more time for Elop to try to make his strategy work. If Lumia sales are below 4 million, Lumia has failed to an unacceptable degree. Elop will have squandered the only chance Nokia had had, to try to shift platforms, and blasted what any opportunity may have been left for Lumia. If the Lumia sales in Q4 fall under 4 million, the signs are undeniable that Lumias path is a dead end, a cul-de-sac, and the sooner Nokia Board sees this, the sooner they must terminate all activites that waste resources pursuing that rharga black berry pearle.



It is the proverbial dead horse. And you cant ride the dead horse the only thing you can do, is get off the horse and find some other way to proceed. If Lumia fails to sell 4 million copies in Q4, it will be so comprehensively rejected that Nokia cannot revive it. Then it is time to think what to replace it harga black berry pearl
? Android?



MeeGo? Tizen? bada? Blackberry OS? Palm WebOS?



(check harga black berry pearl where the leading forecasters now estimate Lumia sales for Q4. Can you spell 500,000 units? ) And obviously my view already now as we await the Nokia Q4 numbers for Lumia is, that based on his behavior in the past year, Elop has mismanaged his company so totally, that he may not be allowed to continue running Nokia. He must be fired.



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